Arakan Army in Myanmar: China & India’s Strategic Interests | Border Geopolitics

Arakan Army at the Border, China and India’s Watch | Myanmar

Introduction

Myanmar, located at the crossroads of South Asia and Southeast Asia, has long been in the spotlight for political instability, civil wars, and international geopolitics. Recently, the growing influence and presence of the Arakan Army (AA) along Myanmar’s border has drawn renewed attention from regional powers. Especially, global players like China and India are now keeping a close watch on developments in the Arakan region. For Bangladesh as well, this situation carries profound implications. This article delves into the rise of the Arakan Army, the strategic significance of Rakhine State, Myanmar’s civil war, the interests of China and India, and the potential challenges and opportunities for Bangladesh.

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2. Increasing financial sources through control of trade and smuggling routes.

3. Creating a political front to seek international recognition.

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Strategic Importance of Rakhine Region

Rakhine State, located in western Myanmar, holds immense strategic importance due to its geography and economy.

1. Direct access to the Bay of Bengal: Rakhine’s coastline gives Myanmar a vital international maritime outlet.

2. Proximity to Cox’s Bazar: For Bangladesh, Rakhine’s stability is essential given the Rohingya crisis and border security.

1. China’s Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port: This project is a strategic gateway for China to the Bay of Bengal. Pipelines from here already connect to mainland China.

2. India’s Kaladan Project: India’s connectivity project, linking Mizoram to the port of Sittwe in Rakhine, heavily depends on regional stability.

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Myanmar’s Civil War and Junta Rule

Following the 2021 military coup, Myanmar plunged into deeper instability. The ouster of the democratically elected government triggered nationwide protests, which were brutally suppressed by the junta. Consequently, numerous armed resistance groups emerged across the country.

At first, the Arakan Army maintained strategic silence and avoided direct confrontation with the junta. However, over time, clashes broke out, and now vast areas of Rakhine are effectively under AA’s control.

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China’s Role

China is Myanmar’s largest investor and a major political influencer. Its interests revolve around energy, trade routes, and strategic access to the Bay of Bengal.

• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Myanmar plays a crucial role in China’s connectivity projects.

• Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port: This port ensures vital oil and gas supply routes for China.

• Tacit Support for AA: Analysts argue that China indirectly backs the Arakan Army to safeguard its investments.

China maintains ties with both the junta and ethnic armed groups, ensuring that its long-term strategic projects remain secure.

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India’s Role

For India, Myanmar is a strategic “gateway” to its northeast.

• Kaladan Multimodal Transit Project: Connecting Mizoram with Sittwe port in Rakhine, crucial for India’s regional trade.

• Act East Policy: Myanmar is key to India’s outreach to Southeast Asia.

• Security Interests: Rebel groups operating along the Myanmar-India border pose long-standing security threats to India.

India, like China, maintains engagement with the junta but is also carefully observing the rise of the Arakan Army.

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Bangladesh’s Position

For Bangladesh, the Rakhine situation is highly complex.

1. Rohingya Refugee Crisis: Nearly 1.2 million Rohingyas have taken shelter in Bangladesh. Without stability in Rakhine, repatriation is nearly impossible.

2. Border Security: Clashes between the AA and the junta threaten security along Bangladesh’s southeastern frontier.

3. Economic Opportunities: Rakhine’s trade corridors could open new avenues for Bangladesh-China-India connectivity.

Bangladesh, therefore, seeks peaceful resolution and regional cooperation, though balancing relations with both China and India is a delicate challenge.

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Future Prospects

• Increased Regional Tensions: The rise of the AA has further complicated Myanmar’s civil war.

• China-India Rivalry: Competition over Rakhine may intensify between these two powers.

• Strategic Opportunities for Bangladesh: Alongside resolving the Rohingya crisis, Bangladesh could benefit by integrating into regional trade routes.

• Role of ASEAN: Though ASEAN has engaged with Myanmar’s crisis, its effectiveness remains limited.

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Conclusion

The rise of the Arakan Army has transformed Myanmar’s internal conflict into a key issue of international geopolitics. China and India’s growing involvement in Rakhine will continue to shape the region’s political dynamics. For Bangladesh, the challenge is to safeguard its national interests through balanced diplomacy, border security, and participation in regional cooperation.

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